## Musical Dice -- The Repeater's Regression Strategy

#### Written August 31, 2022

* For those of you craps players who believe in betting with the trends, in regards to how the dice are rolling, this strategy may be for you.*

* Anyone who does regression betting at the craps table, like if you play some version of my Two-Hit Blackout strategy, or if you play Bryan (from Hawaii Craps Shooter)'s Pineapple Press strategy, you know that there is a great deal of risk involved in getting to the required number of hits before regressing down. Even Beau Parker (the Dice Coach)'s gentle regression strategy of twice the normal betting units across, regressing to normal units across after two hits, doesn't come without a significant amount of risk. Early seven-outs kill these kinds of strategies.*

* Lately, I'd been watching videos where the host talks about placing Come bets to minimize the risk and effect of an early seven-out. While from a math point of view, this may be true, I have to say, I really don't like making Come bets. One disadvantage of a Come bet is, once it travels to a number, it only pays even money, and you'll need to put more than 2 times odds to make it pay out more than it would if you had the total investment on a Place bet. For example, if you make a $15 Come bet, and it travels to the 6, and you place 1X odds, if that number hits, you get paid a total of $33 ($15 for the Come bet itself, and $18 for the odds), whereas, if you'd invested the whole $30 on the Place 6, that would have paid out $35. Even if you had placed a $10 Come bet, which traveled to the 6, and then took 2X odds, that payout would only total $34 ($10 for the Come bet, and $24 for the odds). Moreover, Come bets get taken down after the payout, whereas, Place bets remain until a seven-out, or until you decide to take them down. Plus, Come bets, once they travel to a number, become contract bets, and cannot be taken down until either that number is rolled, or a 7 is rolled. And one more disadvantage of a Come bet is that on the come-out roll, if a 7 is rolled, a Come bet loses, while Place bets are automatically turned off on the come-out, and thus are safe from a come-out 7.*

* Ironically, it was one of the advantages of making Come bets, that inspired the strategy I'm about to tell you. For seeing the way the dice are rolling, is one advantage of making Come bets, as opposed to making a bunch of Place bets, and hoping they hit, not knowing which way the dice are rolling.*

* This strategy, called the Repeater's Regression strategy, has you betting only on numbers that hit, hoping that they'll hit again, just like a Come bet, only that you'll be placing these bets, so that they'll stay up, after they hit again. Also, this strategy has you betting twice your normal Place bet amount, then regressing down to the normal amount, after the number hits again. For instance, if a shooter establishes a point of 5, and you're on a $10 table, you'd place a bet of $20 on the 5, hoping it will hit again. Let's say the next roll is a 6, then you'd place $24 on the 6, hoping for another hit there. Yes, it seems like you're making all these bets belatedly, but what you're hoping for, are repeat rolls. In our example, if a 5 rolls again, the next move is to regress that 5 down to $10. In this case, you may also want to regress the 6 down at the same time, since your 28-dollar hit on the 5, was enough to pay for both bets at the normal level. From there, if the numbers hit additional times, press and take your winnings the way you normally would. And if other numbers come up, do the same strategy with them as well.*

* Of course, the risk is, with this strategy, you could have a bunch of numbers out there that are not paid for yet, when the seven-out comes. I still say that this strategy is less risky than most other regression strategies out there. For you will lose less bets on an early seven-out. And if the early seven-outs persist, then my recommendation is either stop betting for a while, or leave the table. For in that case, the trend may be a cold table.*

* This strategy will require you to kind of keep track of which bets have been paid for, and which ones haven't. It does get scary at times with several bets out there at the same time at the 2X level, that haven't been paid for yet. But once those repeat rolls come, and you regress the bets down 2 or 3 at a time (for hits on 4 or 10, the payouts can possibly cover 3 bets at the normal level), it won't take long for you to recognize a profit for the round, and you have a bunch of bets already paid for, and you're ready to press them up and make more money.*

* One final note about this strategy: I would not use this strategy on random rollers. I'd use this strategy on shooters who set the dice in a consistent manner, for those shooters are more likely to roll repeating numbers, and that's the key to this strategy.*

* Of course, no strategy is a guarantee, and certainly, this strategy is not a guarantee. It clearly has holes in it, like any other strategy. I created this strategy for those who want to try to make a profit relatively fast with relatively less at risk. Again, repeating numbers is the key to this strategy.*

* One nice thing about this strategy is the fact that it can be played on any denomination table. On a $5 table, the initial Place bets will be at 2 units apiece, regressing down to one unit, and pressing and taking from there. On a $10 table, you'd initially have 4 units out there. On a $15 table, you can get away with having 5 units out there initially, regressing down to 3. And on a $25 table, you'd have 10 units out there initially. I think you get the idea. It may look like you're late to the party, so to speak, when you initially place the bets, but once they hit, and you regress, you'll be glad you have them out there.*

* As always, this is just one more strategy to put in your arsenal for the next time you play at a craps table. I plan to use it on my next trip to Vegas next month. Good luck! ☺*