Musical Dice -- The Two-Hit Blackout Strategy

Written July 23, 2021

     Around the same time that I'd written the Regression Betting article, I'd thought of the Two-Hit Blackout strategy. But I felt it wouldn't be right to write about it, until I had a chance to test it in a real live casino. Yesterday, on my most recent trip to Lake Charles, I finally got and took that chance. Now, I feel right in sharing with you, what is the Two-Hit Blackout strategy.

     So what is the Two-Hit Blackout strategy? In short, it is a specialized regression betting strategy that I thought up, specifically for $15 craps tables, which is mostly what I deal with, when I gamble in Lake Charles Louisiana. Like all regression strategies, the idea is to initially put a larger amount of money on the Place bets than what you'd normally play with. You'd only keep those bets out there for a few rolls, long enough to get enough hits on those Place bets, so that you'd earn enough money to play with at levels you'd normally play at, and have some profits right away in the process. Once you get that number of hits, the next step is to take down those large bets, and replace them with the smaller more normal bets you'd play with. Specifically, with this strategy, you'd put 440 inside on the Place bets (100 on the 5 and 9, and 120 on the 6 and 8), and keep those bets up there until you've had two hits on those inside numbers. Then, you'd take down those inside bets, and replace them with four units on all the Place bets, and have four units on the Pass Line, and have a 2X odds bet. I like to hedge that $20 Pass Line bet with a $10 Whirl bet. After the regression, your total investment is between $176 and $180 (including the Buys on the 4 and/or the 10). But with each hit on the inside numbers when you have the 440 inside bets up, you'd make $140. For two hits, that's $280, which means that once you regress to the four units all the way across, you'd have a profit of at least $100, which is equivalent to a black chip. Hence, the name of the strategy, the Two-Hit Blackout strategy.

     So how did I even come up with this strategy? Well, the strategy is actually in two parts, and I thought of each part separately.

     The four-units across part of the strategy, I actually thought of back in 2018. At the time, I was looking for a betting method by which I'd have all the Place bets covered, I'd have 2X odds, and I'd be able to press my Place bets quickly up to 15 units, where I would be paid black chips, when the bets hit at that level. And I wanted to do it, placing the least amount of money out there at the start. So four units on the Place bets would accomplish this, for if I start out with 4 units, I'd then press up to 8 units, and then to 15 units. Only two pressings. I figured that such a strategy would require an initial investment of $176-$180 (again, including an initial $10 Whirl bet, which I'd place to hedge my $20 Pass Line bet on the come-out). I initially called the strategy the Carefree Willy strategy, because of the high risk involved. I rarely, if ever played this strategy because you'd have to have up to 7 hits on those numbers in order to get your initial investment back. A pretty idea, that unfortunately should remain an idea, unless you're a Carefree Willy type, who doesn't mind putting such large amounts of money out there like that.

     Then about a month ago, after I'd gotten back from Lake Charles, I started thinking of regression strategies where the amount I'd regress down to, would be sufficient below what I'd make on the few hit rolls pre-regression, so that the amount I make would, over time, make up for the money I'd lose on an early seven-out. I remembered my Carefree Willy strategy, and I thought of getting two hits on 440 inside, and that would total $280. I thought to myself "Hey that's neat. I'd be at least a black chip ahead, if I regress that way, and I'd be able to play my Carefree Willy strategy, and possibly get more black chips, once I press the Place bets up to 15 units--and that takes only two pressings." So that's how the Two-Hit Blackout strategy was born.

     Of course, this goes without saying, that this is a very risky strategy, especially if the initial point is 4 or 10, for you'd have your 440 inside, and maybe 2X odds on your point in that case. If a seven-out comes immediately, for example, you could lose up to $510. But once you get the two hits, and you regress, you're already at least $100 ahead, and if you're a good controlled shooter, you'd have more successes than failures with this strategy, and the successes would outweigh the failures.

     You need two main things in order to succeed at this strategy. First is a decent bankroll to cover the high risk. Second is nerves of steel, for it is stressful putting such large amounts of money out there initially. The first time I used this strategy at a casino, the way I got through the anxiety and the stress, was to focus on setting and tossing the dice correctly.

     If you're playing at a 5 or a 10-dollar table, you may want to scale down this strategy to lower the initial risk. On a 10-dollar table, that would mean 220 inside for two hits, then regressing to two units across. With the 2X odds, and assuming a $5 Whirl on the comeout, you'd have at least a $51 profit upon regression. For a 5-dollar table, you may only want to do 110 inside, then regress to one unit for all the Place bets. With 2X odds, and assuming a $2 C & E bet on the comeout, you'd have at least a $26 profit upon regression. It's up to you.

     My recommendation is definitely only use this strategy on controlled shooters, not on random shooters, since they tend to crap out early more often. As with any craps strategy, it is not guaranteed to win every single time, but at any rate, this is another weapon for your craps strategy arsenal. Good luck! ☺