Musical Dice -- My Experiences With Regression Betting

Written June 20, 2021

     I have been playing craps for nearly 23 years. It has only been within the past 5½ years that I've heard of regression betting by name. But apparently, I'd experienced it in one way or another at least twice prior to hearing about the term.

     So what is regression betting? There are several variations, but the concept is essentially the same. The first part of regression betting is placing a relatively large amount of money on the Place bets and/or the Field bet. Then, after you get one or a few hits on the numbers you bet on, take those bets down, and replace them with lower dollar-amount bets, playing only with the money you made on those rolls that you had the big money out for. The betting amounts that you'd regress down to would total less than what you made on those few rolls. That way, you'd be playing with a profit after relatively few rolls.

     The first time I'd even heard of this concept was at the Atlantis casino in Reno in 2003. I'd had a losing session, and as I was leaving the casino, a man stopped me, and said that he'd seen me play, and that I just needed a better betting strategy. He went on to say how he places 540 across (20 units on all the Place bets except the point), then takes the bets down after one of the numbers hits, and play on the at least $140 made on that one hit. At first it sounded good, but then I dismissed the idea, realizing that a point-seven-out would quickly wipe out my bankroll.

     I'd accidentally and unknowingly stumbled on the regression topic a second time in 2007, while I was on a casino boat just outside of Jacksonville Florida, where I was living at the time. There, I was the shooter, shooting from one of the inner hook positions, a position that I rarely play. Back then, I had no concept of dice-setting either, and I was just chucking the dice down to the other end. But this was one of the best shoots I'd ever had. However, it was dampened by the fact that apparently, my throws kept knocking over the Place bets, and the dealers were yelling at me because of that. It certainly was not intentional, and I couldn't see what I was doing, since I'm visually impaired. I told the dealers that what I was doing wasn't on purpose, but after getting repeatedly yelled at, while at the same time parlaying my bets up from $5 levels to $50 levels, after making a point, I angrily decided to take down all my bets and leave the table. I stayed only because the other players loved my shooting, and urged me to aim more toward the middle of the back wall. I stayed, but I had decided that these dealers won't have another shot at my green chips. I started over at the $5 betting level for everything. I was able to parlay everything back up to $25 levels before I finally crapped out. It turned out that unintentional regression strategy I did, won me $1215 at that table, as one of the biggest craps win I'd ever had. And I had no idea what I did!

     By early 2016, I was downloading and listening to craps videos on YouTube. It was at that time that I'd downloaded the Dice Coach (Beau Parker)'s video on regression betting. Again, I pooh-poohed the idea because of the whole point-seven-out.

     However, it was during the pandemic last year that I seriously considered giving regression betting a try. For by then, I was getting better at dice-setting (no longer merely chucking the dice, like I didn't know what I was doing). By that time, I'd seen YouTube videos by BoneThrower, Big AZ Craps Guru, Rick from LetItRoll, and Bryan from Hawaii Craps Shooters, who all talked about regression betting. I realized that since I had started setting the dice that I'd been point-sevening-out less often, and it would make sense to try this regression strategy. So I started practicing, and working on ways to make this work for me for when I'd be able to play at Lake Charles again (I had moved to Houston in 2013, and Lake Charles is the closest place where I can play craps).

     It wasn't until earlier this year at Lake Charles when I dared try this regression strategy. I think I even crapped out early the first time, but I made up for it on later rolls. In late March, I did the regression strategy at the Golden Nugget casino in Lake Charles, shot 27 times, and made $433 at that table. That convinced me to add regression betting to my repertoire.

     Since then, my results have been decidedly mixed. Overall, I lost money with the strategy last month in Vegas, but on my most recent trip to Lake Charles last week, I won money with the strategy. One thing that I did (which I don't think I mentioned in the Craps Blog) was made sure that I had more than just a slight profit upon regressing down. This means putting a little more out there prior to regressing, but this way, the amount I win would out-weigh the losses when I do seven-out early. As with any craps strategy, you will tailor it to suit your needs.

     Well, there's my $.02 on regression betting. As others like Rick and Bryan have stated, no strategy works all the time, and that includes this one. But the most successful craps players have an arsenal of weapons they can use, based on table conditions, and this strategy is just one more weapon. But when used correctly, it can be a very powerful weapon. I would suggest you only use it on controlled shooters, as random shooters tend to crap out early more often. Good luck! ☺